Disunion of the US in the near future -This is a HUGE topic!
-I have narrowed it slightly so far. I composed a map that I am pleased with, the red and blue patchwork with my theoretical five nations overlaid. I am looking for an even better base map that properly accounts for population density, but for now the red and blue patchwork is OK.
Now that I am done with maps for the moment, I began thinking today about emphasizing a specific style for future posts.
I decided “speculative essay” will be good. Here is a nice definition:
“nonfiction works aimed at hypothesizing on the future circumstances surrounding a given subject”
( from Speculative Essay: Definition & Example ).
The subject is disunion of the US, of course.
My speculations will probably be stories that begin the second half of 2023. The events that set the stage are these:
1. A bad outcome for Democrats in the November 8th, 2022 midterm elections.
2. A final decision by the US Supreme Court, in June, 2023, in the Moore v Harper case, ruling that the “independent state legislature doctrine” is valid.
-These two events are viewed by most commentators now in mid 2022 as the end of American democracy if they both happen, because they will be the beginning of a Republican dictatorship. The most immediate and dire expectation is that the 2024 presidential election will be determined in favor of the Republicans by Republican state legislatures regardless of who the voters choose. The widespread recognition by late 2023 that the game is over will drive the plot of my speculative essays.
Two other approaches also make sense:
First, I will probably make the setting for most of my speculative essays one of the five theoretical nations, even if similar events will be happening in the others. That will make the stories more specific and realistic.
Secondly, most of the other posts will probably be about creating the new American Union. By late 2023, the majority of the American public will have decided that the federal government is illegitimate because it is an emerging dictatorship. But, the federal government is huge, so the complexities of establishing the new AU to replace it will be a huge, complicated topic.
Another fact that might be important in future posts is this:
How the Biden administration reacts to the clamoring to begin disunion in the last year and a half of his term will be important. Although his approval rating will be very low, the public will still see the Executive branch as the bridge to the new order after disunion, because it still seems to work. The Supreme Court will be declaring popular laws unconstitutional, so the public will see no role for them as a bridge to the future after disunion. And the Republican Congress will be even more obstructionist and focused on culture wars than now, so they too will have no role as a bridge to the future after disunion. Everything will be done by the 50 states, with possible help from the soon to be defunct federal executive branch.
